U.S. stocks ended slightly higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 snapping a four-week losing streak that had been driven by concerns over trade tensions, recession risks, and weakness in large-cap tech stocks.
The S&P 500 edged up 0.08% to close at 5,667.56, climbing into the green in the final moments of the session. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.52% to 17,784.05, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 32.03 points, or 0.08%, finishing at 41,985.35.
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, breaking its month-long losing streak. The Nasdaq added 0.2% over the five-day stretch, and the Dow led major indexes with a 1.2% weekly increase.
Flash PMIs and inflation data in this week’s spotlight
Looking at the week ahead, Flash PMI readings for March are due Monday, offering an early look at business activity across major developed economies.
The data will be closely watched for signs of how firms are responding to shifting tariff policies, fiscal changes, and geopolitical tensions, with a particular focus on the U.S. and Europe.
The PMI figures will kick off a busy week of economic releases that could shape the outlook for monetary policy.
Key reports include the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—core PCE prices—along with final fourth-quarter GDP growth data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Morgan Stanley strategists set their February core PCE inflation forecast at 0.351% month-over-month, which rounds to 0.4%.
“We expect the 3-month annualized pace at 3.43% (vs. 2.39% in January), the 6-month at 3.02% (vs. 2.6% in Jan), and the y/y rate at 2.76% (vs. 2.65% in Jan),” they said. “We are tracking core services ex-housing at 0.33%m/m and marked-based core at 0.35%.”
On the earnings front, this week will be very light as the reporting season winds down. Some notable companies set to report include GameStop (NYSE:GME), Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), and McCormick & Company (NYSE:MKC).
What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks
Yardeni Research: “The stock market may be bottoming on the prospects that the tariffs might be more targeted and negotiable. Trump certainly provided a one-day Trump Put on Friday, when the S&P 500 dropped sharply on the open but rallied to close slightly above Thursday’s close. We still expect the stock market to be choppy through mid-year, but it could be choppier to the upside now that it has been choppy to the downside since mid-February.”
Morgan Stanley: “Stronger seasonals, lower rates and oversold momentum indicators support our call for a tradeable rally from ~5500. A weaker dollar and stabilizing Mag 7 EPS revisions can drive capital back to the US. Beyond the tactical rally, volatility will likely persist this year.”
RBC Capital Markets: “The median P/E of the S&P 500 is down to 17x, a big improvement but still well above its long-term average of 15x. It’s tough to have confidence in forward P/Es right now given the need for EPS expectations to be adjusted, but we still find it useful to keep an eye on the trends here. In our investor meetings, some have asked whether the recent rotation out of the US and into Europe might soon reverse. On the US side, we don’t see a valuation justification for that kind of shift yet.”
