Brazil central bank lowers 2025 growth forecast, inflation to stay high

Brazil’s central bank has lowered its economic growth forecast for this year to 1.9%, down from the 2.1% it predicted in December. The announcement came on Thursday, as part of the bank’s quarterly monetary policy report.

The report also highlighted that consumer prices are expected to stay above the bank’s maximum tolerance limit of 4.5% for the entirety of 2025. A decline in inflation is only expected to start in the last quarter of the year, but even then, it will remain above the target set by the bank.

Last week, the central bank had predicted an inflation rate of 5.1% for 2025. However, in its latest report, it has revised this estimate downwards for the following years. The bank now estimates inflation to be at 3.7% in 2026 and 3.1% in the third quarter of 2027. These are the latest periods covered by the bank’s current projections.

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