Financial market forecasts indicate very limited changes in the monetary policies of major central banks regarding interest rates, as investors focus on upcoming political and economic developments, particularly Donald Trump's statements on tariffs and the U.S. Consumer Price Index data next week.
Current estimates show that the U.S. Federal Reserve is heading towards a rate cut of 53 basis points by the end of 2025, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged at the next meeting is around 95%, reflecting a strong consensus among traders that there is no immediate pressure for adjustment.
The recently released positive non-farm payroll report has supported the scenario of the Federal Reserve reducing rates twice during 2025, especially with the continued resilience of the U.S. labor market. While political tensions have eased after the passage of Trump's bill, attention is turning towards upcoming U.S. inflation data, which may reshape interest rate expectations anew.
Additionally, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 26 basis points, with a probability of 89% for keeping rates unchanged at the next meeting. As for the Bank of England, forecasts indicate a reduction of about 55 basis points, with an 85% likelihood of no immediate adjustment. The Bank of Canada is not far from this trend, with an expected rate cut of approximately 30 basis points, and a 72% probability of maintaining the current rate.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to reduce rates by 77 basis points with a significant chance of a temporary hold, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to maintain rate stability despite forecasts of a 31 basis point cut.
The Swiss National Bank is heading towards a slight reduction not exceeding 9 basis points, while the Bank of Japan is the only bank that markets anticipate will raise interest rates by 11 basis points by the end of the year, despite near-total certainty that there will be no change at the next meeting.
