With Wall Street's surge to record highs, the U.S. stock market looks nearly as expensive as ever, and investors are debating whether the lofty valuations are a bearish signal or justified by the technology-heavy market's profit outlook. Few investors would argue the broad stock market is cheap. Since late last month, the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab has traded above 22 times its expected earnings over the next year, according to LSEG Datastream. That's a price-to-earnings level the index has ascended to only about 7% of the time over the past 40 years. The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Determining appropriate market valuations could help investors understand how expensive stocks could get or how deeply they might fall, especially if there are renewed recession concerns. Whether current valuations are an imminent sell signal remains to be seen. Investors say the U.S. stock market can trade at elevated levels for an extended period of time. Some investors believe a number of structural changes could justify higher stock valuations, including greater representation in indexes from tech companies that generate massive profits. "By pretty much every historical metric (the market's valuation) is rich," said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. "The question investors are grappling with is, is it warranted?" Advertisement · Scroll to continue
Report This Ad The S&P 500 has soared 25% since April, as investors grew less fearful that President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs would cause a recession. The index has gained 6% so far in 2025, and over 60% in the past three years. As of Tuesday, the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio was 22.2, according to LSEG Datastream. That level is over 40% above the index's 40-year average of 15.8 and about 20% above its 10-year average of 18.6. A metric comparing price to expected sales shows the S&P 500 trading over 60% above its average of the past 20 years, according to Datastream. "On the broadest basis, the market has clearly got a valuation headwind relative to where it has been in history," said Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist at Madison Investments. S&P 500 P/E ratio S&P 500 P/E ratio Investors debate the relevance of historical comparisons. The bigger presence in indexes of technology and tech-related companies, which tend to carry higher valuations, drives up the P/E ratio, while the profit strength of the largest companies also means the index could deserve higher valuations, investors said.
