Goldman Sachs lowers its aluminum price forecasts due to U.S. tariffs!

Goldman Sachs predicted in its latest report that the aluminum market will witness a surplus of 580,000 tons in 2025, representing a significant shift from previous forecasts that indicated a deficit of 76,000 tons. This adjustment comes as the bank lowers its expectations for global aluminum demand growth, forecasting modest growth of 1.1% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, due to the slowing of global economic growth. Previous forecasts indicated a higher growth rate of 2.6% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Despite these moderate demand forecasts, Goldman Sachs still expects aluminum prices to rise after 2025; however, this increase will be less than previously expected due to the anticipated supply surplus during the period from 2025 to 2026, which will help alleviate the extent of price increases. According to the new forecasts, the price of aluminum is expected to reach $2,720 per ton by December 2026, compared to the previously expected $3,100. The bank also predicts that the average price will be around $2,800 per ton in 2027, when the market enters a deficit of 722,000 tons. It is noteworthy that U.S. President Donald Trump had previously announced plans to impose a series of tariffs on a range of imported goods, including a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel and auto parts, along with tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. Trump indicated that he would later this week reveal the tariff rates on imported semiconductors, in a move aimed at bolstering the U.S. industry in the face of global competition.