ransport demand from China to the United States is deteriorating sharply as trade tensions escalate, according to a new report from Bank of America.
“China to US container bookings dropped by 45% year-over-year in the week of April 14,” BofA analysts wrote, citing data from Vizion.
The decline is said to be worse than the figures reported by Hapag Lloyd and K+N, which both cited around a 25–30% fall in bookings.
The downturn is being attributed to new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, despite President Trump’s recent claim that tariffs would “come down substantially.”
The Port of Los Angeles expects arrivals to fall by 35% within weeks, citing an “almost stop in Chinese and softer SE Asia volumes,” said BofA, referencing comments from the port’s director.
Carriers are reportedly responding by canceling more sailings across the trans-Pacific routes, withdrawing over 20% of capacity, BofA said. Still, freight rates have remained relatively stable, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index down just 1% month-over-month.
In the air cargo sector, volumes from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. fell 16% year-over-year for the week of April 14–20, a steeper drop than the broader Asia-Pacific region’s 3% decline, notes BofA.
“Cathay Pacific said it expects a softening of air cargo demand between China and the US from early May,” BofA noted, adding that the impending removal of the U.S. de minimis exemption on May 2 could further dampen demand.
Meanwhile, weakening U.S. consumer sentiment is also pressuring demand. The University of Michigan’s April survey showed a 4.8-point drop in consumer confidence to 52.2—its lowest reading since mid-2022.
According to BofA, “the tariff war is starting to affect China to US shipments,” with broad implications for ocean and air freight as well as consumer behavior.
