AUD/JPY appreciates to near 98.80 during the European session on Monday, potentially supported by positive Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures. The close trading relationship between China and Australia likely contributes to this correlation.
Moreover, the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) may have encountered negative sentiment as investor confidence was buoyed by the first expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity in six months, observed in March.
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI was reported at 51.1 on Monday, surpassing expectations of 51.0 and exceeding the previous reading of 50.9. Before that, on Sunday, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 in the prior month. Additionally, the Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 53.0 in March from 51.4 in February.
Former BOJ official Tsutomu Watanabe has indicated that the next rate hike in Japan might not materialize until October at the earliest. According to an assessment reported by Bloomberg (gated), Watanabe foresees the BoJ adopting a cautious, data-driven approach, primarily due to concerns surrounding Yen depreciation.
However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) might have struggled due to weaker Consumer Inflation Expectations, which could suggest expectations for interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in late 2024. Investors are anticipated to closely scrutinize the release of the RBA Meeting Minutes scheduled for Tuesday to gain insights into the central bank's stance and future policy direction.
