Donald Trump’s return to the White House would be favorable for the cryptocurrency and digital asset sector, Compass Point Research & Trading said in a recent note.
“He is supportive of crypto. His campaign is accepting crypto donations,” the firm highlighted.
Last month, Trump met with a group of crypto miners to discuss how the crypto industry could benefit U.S. energy production, distribution, the development of artificial intelligence (AI), and data centers.
The former president also expressed a desire for all Bitcoin (BTC) mining to occur in the U.S. His pro-crypto stance has been incorporated into the Republican National Committee’s 2024 Platform, which commits to ending the crackdown on crypto and blocking the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). The platform also supports the self-custody of crypto assets and BTC mining.
Moreover, he selected Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) to be his Vice-President candidate.
Vance, who previously campaigned on a pro-crypto platform, recently began circulating draft legislation that would address crypto regulation by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) and CFTC.
His bill is considered to be more industry-friendly than the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), which passed the House with broad bipartisan support. Vance also holds between $100,000 and $250,000 of BTC.
"Under a Trump/Vance administration, the prospects of crypto legislation becoming law improve significantly. Trump could accelerate crypto legislation,” Compass Point noted.
At present, the expectation is that stablecoin legislation would lead the crypto movement in Congres. However, Trump’s crypto-friendly approach combined with bipartisan support for FIT21 signals that broader crypto legislation could be enacted into law in 2025 or 2026.
Compass’s report points out bipartisan support as a crucial factor improving the outlook for crypto policy.
Senate Agriculture Committee (SAC) Chair Debbie Stabenow (D–MI) is circulating a draft crypto bill to give the CFTC authority over digital assets. Although the text of the bill is not yet available, her goal is to vote it out of committee before the August break.
This move is seen as critical to the bill’s prospects. Stabenow's collaboration with House Financial Services Committee (HFSC) Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC), who successfully passed FIT21 in the House, shows the potential for bipartisan cooperation on crypto regulation.
Looking forward to 2025, a Trump administration with a Republican-controlled Congress would have a two-year window to pass crypto legislation, Compass Point said.
The passage of FIT21 and Stabenow’s motivation to move a bill out of committee demonstrates a shifting landscape that favors comprehensive crypto legislation.
“This change improves the odds of comprehensive crypto legislation becoming law in the 119th Congress. We place odds at better than 60% and will revisit this outlook following the November election,” Compass analysts said.
A change in administration would also likely bring a new SEC Chair. Hester Peirce, a potential candidate for the position, is supportive of crypto, the note highlights.
A change in SEC leadership could stem the tide of enforcement actions and accelerate the resolution of outstanding cases, such as the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN). Moreover, it could lead to the end of ongoing crypto investigations, and create an opportunity for the SEC “to define the parameters of when a digital asset is a security.”
